The ex-president has deployed some of his most trusted political tools — targeting racial identity, creating alternative realities, flinging insults and gaslighting. On Sunday, for instance, he spread a new false conspiracy theory over the size of Harris’ rally crowd in Michigan last week. But his efforts to bring down his new adversary and her policy of ignoring his provocations have so far more highlighted his own liabilities than hers and emphasized the way Harris could offer a new choice for voters.
When the ex-president called Harris “dumb” at a Montana rally Friday night or falsely claimed last month that she “happened to turn Black,” he may have delighted his base voters. But those kinds of comments risk alienating women and swing-state voters, as well as reversing the gains he has made among minorities that he’d proudly highlighted for months. Trump’s campaign was also forced on Saturday to deny a report in The New York Times that he’d privately referred to Harris as a “b*tch” as he bemoaned her momentum.
Trump’s undisciplined news conference last week and a weekend of venting also suggest that the Republican nominee is far from coming to terms with the shift in a race that seemed to be heading in his direction three weeks ago when bullish Republicans left their convention predicting a landslide.
But a swing-state tour by Harris and her new running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, conjured euphoria not experienced by Democrats in years. It left Trump fuming that his victory in his debate with President Joe Biden only led to a new battle — one he’s more in danger of losing.
In three weeks, Harris has created a potential turning point — offering voters a burst of optimism after a dark period in modern history with her mantra that Americans “don’t want to go back” to the chaos and acrimony of Trump’s term.
Her approach is working — for now — in returning the race to a neck-and-neck contest. Polling averages show her reversing Biden’s deficits. A New York Times/Siena College survey released Saturday, for example, showed no clear leader in the vital swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — a closer race than when Biden topped the ticket. The poll has no bearing on November’s result. But it encapsulated the swift shift in the campaign, and the Trump team felt obliged to release a memo claiming the surveys had “the clear intent and purpose of depressing support” for the former president.
The success of the new Democratic ticket in not just repelling Trump’s initial attacks, but also in using them to expose what Harris views as extremism, has created an unexpected problem for his team. Harris’ assumption of the Democratic torch and Biden’s withdrawal from the race three weeks ago have elevated her party to a place that would have appeared impossible a week ahead of its national convention in Chicago. But Trump is now up against a party that is energized, reversing one of his biggest advantages when Biden led the ticket. And freshness and hope are once again proving to be powerful political forces.
But campaigns are never static, and while Harris may benefit from a condensed run-up to November, there are still nearly three months to go. Trump remains a formidable political force and a vicious opponent. And having united his party behind him, especially in the wake of last month’s assassination attempt, he should still benefit from structural factors, including voters’ pessimism about the economy, that would normally be expected to help shape the election.
The former president is expected to zero in on this issue on Wednesday in North Carolina with a speech his campaign says will focus on how “hard-working Americans are suffering because of the Harris-Biden administration’s dangerously liberal policies” and prices that are “excruciatingly high.” Assuming he sticks to that script, his appearance — in a state Democrats are hoping to put back in play — will begin to test whether a focus on fundamental issues will counter the initial wave of enthusiasm for Harris’ candidacy. Trump has also announced that he will give an interview Monday evening to Elon Musk on the automotive and space pioneer’s X platform.
Trump is heavily criticizing the vice president for having avoided exposure to unscripted moments in news conferences or interviews. And she will face rising questions over when to provide more specificity on the policies she would adopt as president at home and abroad. Harris told reporters Saturday that she’d begin to lay out a policy framework on the economy this week. As a one-day stock market plunge showed last week, she is vulnerable to adverse economic news that could sway Americans who are feeling insecure.
The vice president seems conscious that a new stage of her nascent campaign is beckoning after last week’s tour de force with Walz. “What we know is, the stakes are so high. And we can take nothing for granted in this moment,” she said at a San Francisco fundraiser Sunday. “It’s really been a good couple weeks, but we have a lot of work to do.”
